Macro

Pentagon reports progress in Operation Epic Fury as Iran remains defiant

Continued military actions and defiance hinder diplomatic solutions, reducing market confidence in a swift resolution to the conflict.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Traders skeptical of US-Iran ceasefire as April 7 odds drop to 1%

Traders' skepticism highlights the uncertainty and potential for prolonged conflict, impacting geopolitical stability and market dynamics.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Trump’s Tehran strike raises odds of Iranian regime fall to 14% by June 30

The strike's impact on market sentiment highlights geopolitical volatility, but traders remain cautious about a regime collapse without further destabilization.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

US combat search and rescue team enters Iran, boosting military presence odds to 86%

The increased U.S. military presence in Iran heightens the risk of conflict, potentially prompting diplomatic negotiations or escalation.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Latest

US combat search and rescue team confirmed inside Iran for F-15E recovery

Apr. 4, 2026

US combat search and rescue team confirmed inside Iran for F-15E recovery

The presence of U.S. troops in Iran heightens geopolitical tensions, influencing market predictions and potentially impacting global stability.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as US forces clash with IRGC in Iran

Apr. 4, 2026

Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as US forces clash with IRGC in Iran

Rising tensions and market volatility highlight the fragility of peace efforts, with potential diplomatic shifts impacting future stability.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Ceasefire odds for US-Iran conflict drop to 1% amid escalating tensions

Apr. 4, 2026

Ceasefire odds for US-Iran conflict drop to 1% amid escalating tensions

Escalating US-Iran tensions and low ceasefire odds could destabilize regional markets and heighten geopolitical uncertainties.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran’s missile cities raise odds of US ground forces entry to 86.5% by April 30

Apr. 4, 2026

Iran’s missile cities raise odds of US ground forces entry to 86.5% by April 30

Iran's fortified missile infrastructure suggests a shift towards prolonged conflict, impacting US military strategy and market predictions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Market odds surge for US forces entering Iran by April 30 after clashes

Apr. 4, 2026

Market odds surge for US forces entering Iran by April 30 after clashes

Rising market odds for US forces in Iran suggest heightened geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in regional stability.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid ongoing clashes

Apr. 4, 2026

Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid ongoing clashes

Rising odds of U.S. forces entering Iran suggest heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran eases transit restrictions for Iraq, but US-Iran ceasefire odds drop

Apr. 4, 2026

Iran eases transit restrictions for Iraq, but US-Iran ceasefire odds drop

Iran's easing of restrictions with Iraq highlights regional complexities, but broader US-Iran diplomatic progress remains elusive.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran reopens borders for trade and pilgrims, but ceasefire odds remain low: FT

Apr. 4, 2026

Iran reopens borders for trade and pilgrims, but ceasefire odds remain low: FT

Iran's border reopening highlights regional trade potential, but skepticism over US-Iran diplomacy persists, affecting market confidence.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Odds of US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1% amid escalating tensions

Apr. 4, 2026

Odds of US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1% amid escalating tensions

The diminishing odds of a ceasefire highlight the deepening geopolitical instability and the challenges of achieving diplomatic resolutions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran warns of regional chaos for US if tensions escalate, ceasefire odds drop

Apr. 4, 2026

Iran warns of regional chaos for US if tensions escalate, ceasefire odds drop

Escalating tensions could destabilize the region, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations, with traders showing increased skepticism.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ