Macro

Iran’s denial of US negotiations drops April 7 ceasefire odds to 1%

The diplomatic stalemate underscores the challenges in achieving a timely resolution, impacting market confidence and geopolitical stability.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran’s rejection of US demands fuels skepticism in ceasefire markets

Iran's stance heightens market skepticism, indicating prolonged conflict and delaying potential diplomatic resolutions.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid escalating US-Iran tensions and military strikes: FT

Escalating US-Iran tensions and military actions undermine diplomatic efforts, increasing market volatility and reducing ceasefire prospects.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Ceasefire odds drop as Iran faces attacks, April 7 now at 1.1% YES

The diminishing ceasefire odds highlight escalating regional tensions and skepticism about achieving peace in the near term.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Latest

Iran threatens to target Zionist embassies amid Operation True Promise 4 footage

Apr. 4, 2026

Iran threatens to target Zionist embassies amid Operation True Promise 4 footage

Iran's threats and military actions underscore regional instability, impacting global markets and highlighting regime cohesion amid leadership scrutiny.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran threatens Zionist embassies amid rising regime fall odds to 13.5% by June 30

Apr. 4, 2026

Iran threatens Zionist embassies amid rising regime fall odds to 13.5% by June 30

Iran's threats and military actions highlight regional tensions, impacting market perceptions of regime stability and geopolitical risks.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Bitcoin ETFs see $69.6M inflows in April 2026, but $100K target remains at 0% YES

Apr. 4, 2026

Bitcoin ETFs see $69.6M inflows in April 2026, but $100K target remains at 0% YES

Institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs grows, but market skepticism and volatility hinder significant price breakthroughs without clear catalysts.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid Israel-Iran military escalation

Apr. 4, 2026

Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid Israel-Iran military escalation

The military escalation significantly diminishes near-term peace prospects, impacting diplomatic efforts and market confidence.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Israel escalates conflict with Iran, targeting oil facilities and reducing global flows

Apr. 4, 2026

Israel escalates conflict with Iran, targeting oil facilities and reducing global flows

The escalation risks prolonged instability in the region, impacting global oil markets and complicating diplomatic resolutions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 rise to 14% amid military escalation

Apr. 4, 2026

Odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 rise to 14% amid military escalation

The increased odds reflect heightened geopolitical tensions, suggesting potential instability but not an immediate regime change.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 rise to 13.5% amid US-Israeli air campaign

Apr. 4, 2026

Odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 rise to 13.5% amid US-Israeli air campaign

The increased odds highlight geopolitical tensions and market skepticism, underscoring the complexity of predicting regime stability.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Bitcoin ETFs see $8.9M inflow as Ethereum leads with $71.1M on April 4: FT

Apr. 4, 2026

Bitcoin ETFs see $8.9M inflow as Ethereum leads with $71.1M on April 4: FT

Investor caution amid geopolitical tensions suggests a shift in capital allocation, impacting market sentiment and Bitcoin's price outlook.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Bitcoin ETFs see $8.9M inflows amid cautious market sentiment: FT

Apr. 4, 2026

Bitcoin ETFs see $8.9M inflows amid cautious market sentiment: FT

Geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainties may hinder Bitcoin's growth, requiring significant catalysts for substantial price increases.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

EU tariffs on US goods by September 30 loom as Trump escalates trade tensions

Apr. 4, 2026

EU tariffs on US goods by September 30 loom as Trump escalates trade tensions

Rising EU-US trade tensions could disrupt global markets, impacting economic stability and international trade relations significantly.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ