Macro

Market odds for Iranian regime change by June 30 drop to 13.5% as skepticism grows: FT

Skepticism about Iranian regime change highlights the regime's resilience and the complexities of geopolitical shifts in volatile regions.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Odds of Iranian regime change by June 30 drop to 13.5% from 20% a week ago

The entrenched power structures in Iran suggest a stable regime, complicating external efforts for change and impacting market confidence.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Explosions in Tehran raise odds of regime change to 14% by June 30

Increased tensions in Tehran highlight potential for significant geopolitical shifts, impacting regional stability and global market dynamics.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Explosions in Tehran boost odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14% YES

The explosions highlight escalating tensions that could destabilize Iran, but market skepticism suggests limited belief in imminent regime change.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Latest

Trump continues talks despite Iran downing two US jets; ceasefire odds drop to 1.1%

Apr. 3, 2026

Trump continues talks despite Iran downing two US jets; ceasefire odds drop to 1.1%

Market skepticism highlights the fragile state of US-Iran relations, with diplomatic efforts struggling to gain traction amid rising tensions.

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Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86.5% amid tensions

Apr. 3, 2026

Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86.5% amid tensions

Rising odds of US military action in Iran could destabilize regional geopolitics, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations significantly.

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Market predicts 86% chance of US forces entering Iran by April 30

Apr. 3, 2026

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The heightened market prediction reflects increased geopolitical tensions, potentially leading to significant military and economic repercussions.

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Iran rejects US demands, ceasefire odds drop to 1.1% by April 7

Apr. 3, 2026

Iran rejects US demands, ceasefire odds drop to 1.1% by April 7

Iran's rejection of US demands exacerbates market volatility and dims prospects for diplomatic resolution, impacting geopolitical stability.

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Iran’s refusal to meet US officials drops ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7

Apr. 3, 2026

Iran’s refusal to meet US officials drops ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7

Iran's stance heightens regional tensions, complicating diplomatic efforts and increasing the likelihood of military confrontations.

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US military activity in Iran drives prediction market surge for troop presence

Apr. 3, 2026

US military activity in Iran drives prediction market surge for troop presence

The surge in prediction markets signals heightened geopolitical tensions and potential for prolonged US military engagement in the region.

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Iran downs two US warplanes, reducing April 7 ceasefire odds to 1%

Apr. 3, 2026

Iran downs two US warplanes, reducing April 7 ceasefire odds to 1%

The incident underscores heightened tensions, diminishing diplomatic resolution prospects and impacting market confidence in ceasefire outcomes.

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US-Iran ceasefire markets show sharp declines amid rising nuclear threat

Apr. 3, 2026

US-Iran ceasefire markets show sharp declines amid rising nuclear threat

The declining ceasefire odds highlight escalating tensions, potentially destabilizing the region and impacting global diplomatic efforts.

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GBP/USD drops as strong US employment data fuels Fed rate hold speculation

Apr. 3, 2026

GBP/USD drops as strong US employment data fuels Fed rate hold speculation

The strong US employment data reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, impacting market dynamics and creating contrarian trading opportunities.

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Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid escalating tensions

Apr. 3, 2026

Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid escalating tensions

Rising odds of U.S. forces entering Iran signal potential geopolitical instability, impacting global markets and strategic military dynamics.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ