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Iran has issued a warning to the U.S., threatening regional chaos if tensions continue. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Traders are reacting to Iran’s threats by betting against a ceasefire. The April 7 market shows deep skepticism, while April 15 is at 6.5% YES, down from 8%. April 30 odds fell to 17.5% YES after a brief rise. The later markets show ongoing pessimism.
Trading volume hit $431,402 in the past 24 hours, below the $3.76M face value. Moving April 7 odds by 5 points costs $12,352, indicating thin trading. A 2-point rise at 5:08 PM yesterday in the April 30 market suggests some traders are seeking quick gains.
Iran’s threats lack concrete actions. Without escalation, the rhetoric may not lead to immediate conflict. A YES share at 1.1¢ for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1, a 90x return, but requires a sudden diplomatic shift.
Watch for Trump’s next moves and any negotiation signals from intermediaries like Oman.
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