SpaceX’s AI business projected to generate $322B by 2030 as company prepares for Nasdaq IPO

SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. Following its all-stock acquisition of Elon Musk’s xAI in February 2026, the combined entity is being positioned as one of the largest AI infrastructure plays on the planet, with Goldman Sachs projecting the AI division alone will generate $322 billion in revenue by 2030.

That figure would represent roughly 68% of SpaceX’s total projected revenue of $474 billion. The AI segment pulled in $3.2 billion in 2025. Goldman expects that to hit $15.6 billion in 2026, $34.5 billion in 2027, and then accelerate into the hundreds of billions by decade’s end.

From rockets to revenue machines

The growth thesis hinges on SpaceX’s plan to deploy a constellation of AI-optimized satellites designed to deliver 100 gigawatts of solar-powered computing capacity by 2030. The company filed plans in January 2026 for up to 1 million AI satellites and announced a dedicated Gigasat manufacturing facility. Initial satellite launches are targeted for 2028.

The company has already locked in heavyweight customers. Anthropic signed a deal worth $1.25 billion per month, while Google committed to $920 million monthly. Those two contracts alone represent over $26 billion in annualized revenue.

Meanwhile, Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet division, is projected to generate $144 billion by 2030. The core rocket business is expected to contribute just $8.3 billion.

The IPO and the valuation debate

SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq in mid-June 2026, with an estimated valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Goldman Sachs served as lead underwriter. Elon Musk retained majority voting control of the combined entity after the listing.

At the time of the xAI acquisition in February 2026, the combined company was valued at approximately $1.25 trillion.

But not everyone shares Goldman’s enthusiasm. Morningstar pegged SpaceX’s valuation closer to $780 billion, less than half of the IPO-day figure. The skeptics point to competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, all building out AI infrastructure at breakneck speed.

What the numbers actually require

Going from $3.2 billion to $322 billion in five years means roughly 100x revenue growth. Goldman’s projections essentially assume that SpaceX will capture a massive share of global AI compute demand, that its satellite manufacturing scales on time, that launches proceed without major failures, and that customers continue paying billions per month for orbital processing power.

The Anthropic and Google contracts provide near-term validation, but monthly commitments of that size also raise questions about customer concentration. If either deal were renegotiated or terminated, the revenue impact would be immediate and significant.