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Bitcoin halving optimism faces challenges from economic realities

bitcoin halving economic analysis

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As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving approaches, Goldman Sachs questions the bullish outlook, suggesting that current economic conditions, including high inflation and interest rates, might disrupt the historical pattern of price increases following previous halvings. The bank advises caution against extrapolating past cycles and emphasizes that the supply-demand dynamic and growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs will be more significant factors in determining Bitcoin’s medium-term price performance.

Meanwhile, traders are rushing to deposit billions of dollars onto speculative, pre-launch Bitcoin layer 2 solutions in an attempt to capitalize on the halving hype. One nascent Bitcoin layer 2, which promises to support the upcoming Runes fungible token protocol, has attracted over $3 billion worth of BTC, outranking the total value locked (TVL) on several established Ethereum layer 2s.

In other news, the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance has confirmed the upcoming ASI token merger for early May, unifying the tokens FET, AGIX, and OCEAN into ASI. The merger, approved by the communities of Fetch.ai, SingularityNET, and Ocean Protocol, aims to democratize AI infrastructure and challenge the dominance of Big Tech in AI development. The ASI token is projected to enter the top 20 largest cryptocurrencies post-merger.

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BITCOIN

Bitcoin halving optimism faces challenges from economic realities: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs has expressed skepticism regarding the bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, suggesting that current economic conditions might disrupt the historical pattern of price increases following previous halvings.

The bank points out that factors such as high inflation and interest rates are unlike those of previous halvings when the money supply was high and interest rates remained low, favoring riskier investments like Bitcoin. Goldman Sachs advises caution against assuming that the same price surge will happen again this time, given the prevailing macroeconomic conditions.

The bank believes that the short-term price action around the halving might not significantly affect Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. Instead, Goldman Sachs argues that the supply-demand dynamic and the growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs will be a bigger factor than the halving hype.

The bank notes that Bitcoin’s price performance will likely continue to be driven by these factors, combined with the self-reflexive nature of crypto markets, which is the primary determinant for spot price action. [cryptobriefing]


BITCOIN

Bitcoin halving has attracted billions in speculative TVL

In the lead-up to the most anticipated Bitcoin halving in history, traders are depositing billions of dollars onto speculative, pre-launch Bitcoin layer 2 solutions. One such non-operational layer 2, which is so new that it’s not even listed on popular blockchain trackers, has attracted over $3 billion worth of BTC, outranking the total value locked (TVL) on several established Ethereum layer 2s, including Optimism, Arbitrum, Base, and Blast.

The nascent Bitcoin layer 2 has gained significant traction in recent weeks, despite only starting to build tooling when Ordinals launched on Bitcoin. Although it found some initial success supporting Ordinals and early assets like BRC-20 memecoins, the platform’s promise to support Runes, the upcoming fungible token protocol built by the founder of Bitcoin Ordinals, has driven the rush of pre-halving speculators.

The confluence of Runes, epic numismatics, parties, and other events has made this Bitcoin halving particularly expensive, with layer 2 TVL figures and seven-figure bids for a single block of transactions suggesting that it could become the priciest day for speculators in the history of cryptocurrencies. [protos]


ECOSYSTEM

AI tokens FET, AGIX, and OCEAN merger set to go live on May

The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance has confirmed the upcoming ASI token merger for early May, which will see the unification of the tokens FET, AGIX, and OCEAN into ASI. The merger follows the approval from the communities of Fetch.ai, SingularityNET, and Ocean Protocol.

The approved merger will result in FET converting to ASI with a total supply of 2.63055 billion tokens, while AGIX and OCEAN will migrate to ASI at conversion rates of 0.433350 to 1 and 0.433226 to 1, respectively.

With a projected market capitalization of $7.5 billion, the ASI token is expected to enter the top 20 largest cryptocurrencies. The alliance aims to democratize AI infrastructure, challenging the dominance of Big Tech in AI development and monetization. The merger aligns with the recent profitability of AI tokens in Q1, as reported by CoinGecko.

The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance’s mission is to create a decentralized AI infrastructure at scale, ensuring ethical and trustworthy practices while empowering developers and users to foster a more democratic and transparent AI ecosystem. [cryptobriefing]


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