Ripple spot ETF approval unlikely this year, says Bloomberg analyst
Ripple-SEC lawsuit and a lack of a CME futures markets block path to spot ETF.
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With the recent approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs, speculation has been mounting over the future of other crypto ETFs, among them Ripple. However, Bloomberg’s ETF analyst James Seyffart anticipates that a spot Ripple exchange-traded fund (ETF) is unlikely to be launched this year.
In a recent interview with Thinking Crypto, Seyffart shared his view on the potential arrival of a spot Ripple ETF in 2024. He explained that spot Ripple (XRP) products might not be introduced to the ETF market soon due to regulatory challenges.
Seyffart cited the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as the main obstacle to spot Ripple ETF approval. Despite a slim chance of approval, he believes the possibility of a spot Ripple ETF is unlikely this year.
“That’s not happening this year unless the court case is completely done. There’s still challenging this in court. It’s not completely done. The SEC is literally fighting against Ripple in court,” stated Seyffart.
The Ripple-SEC case is nearing its end. The final trial is set for April 23, with both parties following the required procedures. The final motion on remedies litigation is expected on April 29. This means each party will request the legal remedies, such as financial compensation or injunctions against certain actions, that they want the court to order if they win the lawsuit.
According to Seyffart, the regulatory infrastructure plays an important role in increasing the likelihood of approval for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. He specifically emphasized the regulated futures trading of Bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
“Why I think we’ll get Ethereum is that we have futures already trading in the CME that are regulated by the CFTC, which is a regulated market. And then we have the futures ETFs which also are kind of like pushing this thing along as well.”
Seyffart pointed out that similar support for Ripple was not available. He suggested a cautious timeline of 2025 or later for spot XRP ETFs, depending on the court’s decision on Ripple’s legal status. Furthermore, he noted that, except for Bitcoin and Ethereum, other cryptocurrencies may require significant legislative or administrative changes to be approved.
“For the most part is, anything other than Bitcoin or Ethereum, we likely need a little act of Congress, or like a change of administration, or some serious big-time court decision,” stated Seyffart.
Seyffart also dismissed the notion that futures ETFs pave the way for spot ETFs. He clarified that futures products currently offer the best chance, but not a guaranteed ticket, for spot ETF approval.