Macro

Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid US-Israel airstrikes and Iran threats: FT

Rising tensions and market skepticism highlight the potential for prolonged instability and the need for urgent diplomatic interventions.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

US informs Israel of deadlocked Iran negotiations, ceasefire odds plummet

Stalled US-Iran talks heighten geopolitical tensions, diminishing hopes for a ceasefire and increasing the likelihood of military escalation.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Ceasefire odds drop to 1.8% as Iran continues missile attacks on Israel

The prolonged conflict and low ceasefire odds suggest escalating regional instability and potential for broader geopolitical tensions.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Ceasefire odds plummet amid ongoing US-Iran tensions and military escalation: FT

The escalating US-Iran tensions and military actions suggest prolonged instability, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Latest

Trump weighs sending US special forces to Iran as April 30 odds rise to 66%

Apr. 2, 2026

Trump weighs sending US special forces to Iran as April 30 odds rise to 66%

Potential US ground operations in Iran could escalate conflict dynamics, impacting geopolitical stability and market speculation significantly.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Trump weighs sending US special forces to seize Iran’s uranium stockpiles

Apr. 2, 2026

Trump weighs sending US special forces to seize Iran’s uranium stockpiles

Potential US special forces deployment in Iran could escalate tensions, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations significantly.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran reveals Gulf bridge targets as US-Iran ceasefire odds plummet to 2%

Apr. 2, 2026

Iran reveals Gulf bridge targets as US-Iran ceasefire odds plummet to 2%

Increased tensions and military posturing could lead to further instability in the Gulf region, impacting global economic and security dynamics.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran lists Gulf bridge targets after coalition strike, US ceasefire odds plummet

Apr. 2, 2026

Iran lists Gulf bridge targets after coalition strike, US ceasefire odds plummet

The escalation reduces diplomatic prospects, impacting market confidence and highlighting the need for strategic peace interventions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

US forces’ odds of entering Iran by April 30 rise to 66% after Isfahan strike

Apr. 2, 2026

US forces’ odds of entering Iran by April 30 rise to 66% after Isfahan strike

Rising odds of U.S. forces entering Iran signal heightened geopolitical tensions and potential for increased military conflict in the region.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

US forces’ odds of entering Iran by April 30 rise to 65.5% amid military buildup

Apr. 2, 2026

US forces’ odds of entering Iran by April 30 rise to 65.5% amid military buildup

Increased military presence and market speculation suggest a potential shift in US-Iran relations, impacting geopolitical stability.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Explosions near Revolutionary Guard base raise odds of regime fall to 14% by June 30

Apr. 2, 2026

Explosions near Revolutionary Guard base raise odds of regime fall to 14% by June 30

The explosions highlight potential instability, but significant regime change remains speculative without further destabilizing events.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Trump’s efforts to end Iran conflict see ceasefire odds drop to 23.5% by April 30

Apr. 2, 2026

Trump’s efforts to end Iran conflict see ceasefire odds drop to 23.5% by April 30

Market skepticism highlights challenges in achieving a US-Iran ceasefire, but potential diplomatic breakthroughs could emerge by late May.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Ceasefire odds drop to 2% as US-Iran tensions escalate

Apr. 2, 2026

Ceasefire odds drop to 2% as US-Iran tensions escalate

Escalating US-Iran tensions suggest prolonged conflict, diminishing hopes for immediate diplomatic solutions and impacting global stability.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

US strike on Iranian bridge signals military escalation, ceasefire odds plummet

Apr. 2, 2026

US strike on Iranian bridge signals military escalation, ceasefire odds plummet

The military escalation diminishes diplomatic efforts, increasing uncertainty and reducing the likelihood of a near-term ceasefire.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ