Trump’s efforts to end Iran conflict see ceasefire odds drop to 23.5% by April 30

President Trump is working to end the conflict with Iran and stop nuclear weapons development. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 have fallen to 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.

The market shows mixed reactions. Immediate ceasefire odds are low: April 7 is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% a day ago. The April 15 market also dropped to 8.5% from 18%. However, the May 31 market is at 45.5% YES, suggesting traders expect progress in the coming months.

$535,634 was traded in the last 24 hours, with a significant 4-point drop on May 31. It takes $25,858 to move the April 7 market 5 points, indicating thin liquidity. The biggest sentiment change is between April 30 and May 31, hinting at a potential development in May.

Trump’s diplomatic efforts could shift strategies, but skepticism persists. The market suggests a potential breakthrough by late May, with May 31 YES shares priced at 46¢, offering a 2.2x return if resolved. Traders are betting on a diplomatic catalyst within 59 days.

Watch for peace talks, CENTCOM statements, or mediation by Oman or Qatar. Rubio and Hegseth’s actions are also key to US strategy.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES