In a dramatic price surge of around $50 billion in market capitalization, Bitcoin rocketed from below $7,500 USD to a high briefly exceeding $10,000 in less than 24 hours on October 25th.
Since this time, BTC prices have remained relatively buoyant, now pushing back to $9500 after flirting with $9,000.
Numerous narratives and responses have since emerged.
The surge was among the greatest single-day climbs in Bitcoin’s history, exceeding 40% at one point in time, before settling back into the lower $9K range.
Nic Carter, co-founder of CoinMetrics, noted on Twitter that, had the price closed above the $10k mark, it would have made for the third highest single-day return in Bitcoin’s history, surpassed only by two occasions early in Bitcoin’s rise to popularity.
These two previous climbs saw Bitcoin rise in price by 54% and 48% within 24 hours, but they also occurred when the price of one bitcoin was at a significantly lower valuation.
Yassine Elmandjra tweeted that the previous two times Bitcoin experienced such positive price swings, it was only trading at $0.40 in 2010, and $5.65 in 2011.
Many on Twitter took the opportunity to take a few jabs at the always Bitcoin-bearish gold bug Peter Schiff, who theorized on October 23rd that BTC was due for a severe drop.
Schiff suggested the recent “head-and-shoulder” formation confirmed a bearish move toward $6K, and pointed to a likely plunge toward a disastrous $1K. In fact, Schiff’s predictions are so often the exact opposite of what actually happens, the SEC might want to check his Bitcoin trades…
Not only has #Bitcoin broken out of its bear flag pattern, projecting a move to $6K, but the head and shoulders pattern that I mention was forming over the weekend has now been confirmed as well. If this pattern completes it projects a much larger decline, perhaps as low as $1K!
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) October 23, 2019
The bold predictions correctly stated April’s $5,300 and the even bolder $9,200 July price — both gutsy calls considering the market sentiment at the time was extremely bearish during a brutal crypto winter.
Of course, this only gives the market a few days for a run to $16K, according to this person, leaving one to wonder at the near-term possibilities.
While many theorized that the price movement was associated with excitement due to Chinese Presidential declarations of a major push in blockchain-research and investment, the reality is likely far simpler.
With potential profits on leveraged action via markets like BitMEX, traders were stopped out or liquidated in heavy action that caused a severe short squeeze. An all-time high volume boost to 1183 contracts in physically-settled BTC futures on Bakkt would have further added to the greedy sentiment.
This followed the exact opposite pattern last week, when cover for the long squeeze was provided by Libra’s Congressional hearing. Volatility is what draws traders to Bitcoin: and what worries legislators about its manipulation.
Where To Now?
Market sentiment and volume have remained relatively uncertain, according to data provided by TheTIE.io. Yet, volumes on BTC trading are matching the highest observed levels in more than a year — around $45 billion in 24 hours — with the previous high-mark hitting the same volume in July, when BTC was selling for $13,000 USD.
Prices are hovering in the highly-unpredictable range, with room for significant movement in either direction. With another volume crunch on Bakkt, paired with some excitement on leveraged BitMEX trades and a little self-fulfilling 4Chan Wizard prophecy trading behavior, $16K might just be in reach for October’s end.
Unfortunately, so might $6K. Such is the nature of trading Bitcoin. We wouldn’t have it any other way.