Iran’s new IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi may be deliberately delaying US-Iran negotiations. The probability of a diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 3.4% YES.
The market for US-Iran diplomatic meetings is flat, with odds stuck at 3.4% for the past week. The order book is thin enough that $474 could shift the market by 5 points. Meanwhile, Vahidi’s influence is causing traders to reassess the likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April, now at 43% YES, up from 36% just 24 hours ago.
Real dollar volume for the diplomatic meeting market is thin: only $3,545 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours, against a face value of $135,576. That gap shows the market’s apparent liquidity is misleading. The largest move was a 1-point drop, which suggests traders are waiting for concrete signals before sizing up.
Vahidi’s maneuvering could be more than a temporary obstacle. His actions complicate the Trump administration’s push for a deal and could prolong negotiations. A YES share for a diplomatic meeting by June 30 pays $1 if it resolves, offering a 29.4x return. For that to be attractive, you’d need to believe in a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough within 71 days.
Watch VP Vance’s trip to the region and any official statements on the resumption of talks. These will determine whether Vahidi’s influence gets countered by external diplomatic pressure.
