Meta Platforms plans to cut 8,000 jobs, and Trump’s Strait of Hormuz announcement has shifted geopolitical expectations. Crude oil predictions for June now show decreased odds that oil will hit $90, pressured by a large bearish bet and potential easing of tensions.
The Meta news reflects continued cost-cutting in big tech, but the market’s attention is on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s conditional reopening of the strait suggests possible de-escalation, which dampens expectations for crude oil price spikes. The crude oil predictions for June market reflects this, with traders increasingly skeptical that prices will hit $90 by the end of June.
The WTI crude oil market for April also faces pressure. Odds of reaching $160 have decreased, driven by the same geopolitical signals. A significant bearish bet on oil further shows traders expect stabilizing conditions, reducing the risk premium tied to Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
The bearish positioning in oil markets matches Trump’s announcement, pointing to trader perception of reduced geopolitical risk. At current levels, buying YES on crude oil hitting $90 by June offers high potential reward if tensions reignite, but the odds are against it right now. Traders would need concrete catalysts, like OPEC+ production cuts or confirmed strait closures, to justify betting on higher prices.
Watch for developments in the Middle East. Updates from OPEC+, Iran, and US diplomatic channels will matter most. Any shifts in the US-Iran ceasefire or major geopolitical developments could rapidly change market dynamics.
