Iran-linked ships have crossed a US blockade line in the Gulf of Oman. The market on “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31” sits at 87.5% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
The breach raises questions about enforcement gaps in the blockade. Despite the crossing, traders have kept the May 31 odds flat. The market for April 17 is at 0.8% with just one day left, showing little belief in an imminent policy shift. The April 19 market is at 11.5%.
Odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 dropped to 65.5% YES from 60% a day ago. With 14 days left until resolution, traders are repricing the likelihood of a near-term normalization after the breach.
Combined 24-hour trading volume for the blockade markets reached $165,139 in face value, with $33,928 in actual USDC traded. The largest single move was a 6-point drop in the April 19 market following the breach.
Iran’s continued testing of the blockade has pushed the probability of a formal lifting announcement lower across shorter-dated contracts. A YES share at 0.8¢ pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by April 17, a 11.8x return with high risk given the one-day window.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the White House. Any shift in military posture or diplomatic language could move these markets quickly.
