Bettors on Polymarket are putting their money where their pessimism is. The prediction market currently prices the chance of a federal AI safety bill becoming law before the end of 2027 at just 13%, with “Yes” shares trading at 13 cents.

The market has attracted roughly $99,000 in trading volume since launching on November 12, 2025.

A pattern of legislative inaction

This isn’t the first time Polymarket has hosted this bet. A previous version of the market, focused on whether an AI safety bill would pass in 2025, resolved with a definitive “No.” Shares in that market were trading below 1% before it closed on May 20, 2025.

States aren’t waiting around

While federal legislators deliberate, state governments are filling the vacuum. Illinois passed a landmark frontier AI safety bill, SB 315, on May 29, 2026. The legislation mandates that AI developers create risk plans and is currently awaiting the governor’s approval.

On March 20, 2026, the Trump administration released a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence. The framework recommended legislative action at the federal level while explicitly cautioning against the proliferation of state-level regulatory burdens.

An interesting contrast emerges from a related Polymarket bet. The market for an AI data center moratorium passing before 2027 is trading at roughly 93%, implying near-certainty among traders. The divergence is striking: bettors believe Washington will act on energy and infrastructure concerns tied to AI far more readily than on comprehensive safety standards.