It’s been a savage time for the cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum taking a prolonged dive and others proving erratic and unpredictable.
Bitcoin reached the heady heights of $19,000 before slumping to $6,000 in June. Amidst the chaos, fortunes have been made by those that have read the peaks and troughs of the market, as well as the potential impact of regulations and new coins.
Volatility breeds opportunity, after all, and it’s simply a case of making the right calls.That’s easier said than done, but one way to keep ahead of the curve is to simple see what the leading lights in cryptocurrency have to say about the coming weeks and months.
So, what do the leading experts in cryptocurrency think lies ahead? Is a Bull market just round the corner? Or are we in for a winter of discontent?
1. Tom Lee
Fundstradt Global Advisor’s Tom Lee, a regular on CNBC, is bullish about the bounceback coming for Bitcoin.
Despite the slump, Lee claims that Bitcoin taking back its market share is what we should really be looking at. Bitcoin was 80% of the cryptocurrency market at the start of 2017, which dropped to 36% by the end of the year. It has slowly crept back since then and has leap in recent weeks to 48%, but that has not been enough to arrest the slide.
Lee thinks, though, that it will spur a revival in the end. He also thinks the recent SEC ruling that confirmed Bitcoin’s status as a commodity, rather than a security, means that crypto investors will seek refuge in the ‘best house in a tough market.’
Lee points to new deals between the Intercontinental Exchange, Apple and Microsoft are the start of a new dawn for cryptocurrency. Increased legitimacy in the eyes of the public is set to open the floodgates in terms of investment. That is Lee’s angle and it’s a brave one that isn’t widely shared right now.
In the long term, he may well be right. But investors that follow his advice might have to suffer a little pain before the predicted turnaround. It’s high-risk advice, then, because new investors will start in a hole.
2. Tuur Demeester
The Austrian economist and Twitter legend isn’t swayed by the sudden upturn in Bitcoin that saw values rise by 2.5% in a single day. He suspects the bear market is here to stay and his reasoning looks solid.
Demeester points to the 2011-2013 price surge, when Bitcoin rallied 500x in 24 months. A bear market followed that lasted 14 months. Demeester revealed that in 2015-2017, Bitcoin rallied 100x in 35 months and we are now in month nine of the bear market.
In 2011-’13 Bitcoin rallied 500x in 24 months. It needed a 14 month bear market to find a bottom.
In 2015-’17 Bitcoin rallied 100x in 35 months. It so far has seen a 9 month bear market.
— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) August 7, 2018
The implication is clear: the market hasn’t bottomed out yet and Bitcoin has some way to go before it turns around. Demeester believes it will turn, but not yet…
He also believes that the newer coins could face tumultuous times in this bear market, as the miners are forced to sell coins to keep the power running. It’s an esoteric point, but this alone could be enough to tip a younger coin with a higher inflation rate into a slide.
So, if you have a broad portfolio, according to Demeester you might look for the early signs of panic selling and be ready to cut your losses on an outside bet.
3. Gavin Andresen
The Twitter mainstay, who has denied reports that he is the real Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of Bitcoin, believes Bitcoin is in for a rough ride for a while. He believes it’s a seasonal pattern that affects the entire cryptocurrency market and there is simply no way round it.
Feels like we’re in another summer slump for cryptoassets (Mike Hearn wrote about the pattern three years ago: https://t.co/DYNBRlDiVt )
— Gavin Andresen (@gavinandresen) June 20, 2018
Andresen points to a three-year old article on Medium that spells out the crypto Seasonal Affective Disorder. Bitcoin’s performance doesn’t bear out the theory entirely, but Andresen seems to agree that discrepancies are due to skyrocketing prices creating bubbles that distort the market. In essence, though, without major inputs forcing the market out of equilibrium, Andresen suggests that we’re set for a slump every summer.
Of course, this is saying quite a lot without saying much at all, as there can always be a rush on the market and predicting those spikes is what smart investing is all about. It’s fair to say, though, that if Andresen is right, you will have to swim against the tide for the rest of the summer. The market will recover and the traffic increases in winter, which helps the market follow more predictable trends.
4. John McAfee
You probably shouldn’t listen to everything John McAfee has to say, but he does have an interesting perspective on the cryptocurrency world. He has called bull markets before, and he’s convinced that we’re about to see a complete turnaround in Bitcoin’s fortunes.
The eccentric… Twitter personality (what does he do?) had the following to say on Bitcoin’s future:
Bitcoin – $1,000 increase in one week. Is this the bull market? I have no clue. 10 such increases in succession and I will consider it Bull. In the meantime, know this: The Bull Market IS coming. And when it does, it will make the eruption of Krakatoa seem like a Meerkat’s burp.
— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) July 18, 2018
It’s a colorful image from an undoubtedly colorful man. But the message is clear: if you’re not on board when Bitcoin takes off again, you might miss the boat entirely. Now is the time to invest.
So, if you trust John McAfee with your future (in which case, we have an amazing multi-level marketing opportunity for you!) then it’s time to bet big on Bitcoin.
The author is not currently invested in any digital asset.