At least eight tankers have exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, five of them belonging to the sanctioned “Dark Fleet.” The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 sits at 58.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
Market reaction
The May 31 market reflects higher confidence at 86%. The April 30 market trades $32,234 in USDC daily, with $354 needed to move it 5 points. The 4-point drop yesterday suggests active reassessment as traders process the tanker movements against the fact that some vessels turned back.
Why it matters
The passage of sanctioned vessels through the strait suggests some easing of Iran’s selective blockade, but the picture is mixed. Some tankers turned back, and the blockade itself remains in place. The tanker exits point to low-to-moderate de-escalation rather than a clear shift. The 10-point drop in the April 30 market (from 60% to 50%) shows traders are skeptical that these movements translate into full normalization within the month. For the April 30 contract to resolve YES, significant diplomatic developments or an official declaration lifting sanctions would need to happen in the next few weeks.
What to watch
Announcements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry, actions from Trump or the IRGC, changes to the toll regime, and any increase in daily transit numbers through the strait. A YES share at 58.5¢ pays $1 if the market resolves in favor of normalization by April 30, a 2x return.
