President Pezeshkian alleges Iran publicly states assassination plans while others label it a terrorist state. The Iranian regime falling by May 31 remains at 3.0% YES.
Pezeshkian’s statement amid the ongoing US-Israeli conflict adds to tensions. The fall of the Iranian regime by May 31 market holds at 3.0% YES. The market for Iran’s leadership status by the end of 2026 has no reported odds yet but could see movement if assassination claims prove credible.
Pezeshkian’s comments are consistent with previous threats and point to a volatile environment. If further destabilization follows, odds on regime change markets would likely rise.
The regime fall market trades at $471,696 daily face value but only $13,145 in actual USDC. It takes $15,683 to move the odds 5 percentage points. Interest exists, but liquidity is thin enough for a single large order to move prices.
Pezeshkian’s statement raises tensions, but without concrete actions it stays speculative. A YES bet at 3¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by May 31, a 33.3x return. That bet requires believing in rapid destabilization within 43 days. The most concrete triggers would be mass IRGC defections or Guardian Council dissolution.
Watch for developments from the Assembly of Experts or IRGC leadership shifts. Major moves from either body could change these odds quickly.
