Iran will direct Strait of Hormuz traffic via IRGC-controlled routes, escalating tensions. Trump’s announcement odds for lifting the US blockade by May 31 are at 89.5% YES, unchanged over 24 hours.
The May 31 market holds at 89.5% YES, while the April 17 market is at 1.9% YES with only one day left. The April 19 market sits at 18% YES. The spread shows traders doubt a resolution before May. April 17 volume is at $107,510/day, yet only $1,085 would move it 5 points, a sign of thin liquidity.
The UK warship deployment odds by April 30 have dropped to 6% YES, down from 12% a week ago. Low odds and minimal trading activity suggest traders see little chance the UK risks further escalation right now. That market trades $2,086 actual USDC per day, and just $427 can shift it 5 points, making it reactive to even small positions.
Iran’s move to control Strait routing suggests it won’t back down quickly, which lowers the probability of a fast de-escalation. The May 31 blockade-lift odds remain relatively high but stagnant. The term structure shows traders expect any breakthrough after April’s end, if at all.
Watch for direct communications from the White House or Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Trump’s social media posts or official CENTCOM statements could move these odds quickly.
