Iran surrendering its enriched uranium by April 30 trades at 41.9% YES, up from 13% a week ago, as Trump maintains pressure on Iran’s uranium enrichment while North Korea pushes forward with its own nuclear program.
The April 30 market jumped 13 points yesterday, pointing to rising confidence in a near-term deal. The December 31 market is priced at 74.5% YES, showing traders expect a resolution by year-end even if the April deadline passes.
The June 30 market, now at 63.5% YES, declined over the past 24 hours, possibly reflecting skepticism about a quick diplomatic breakthrough. The biggest gap in the term structure sits between May 31 and June 30, a 26-point leap that concentrates expectations around mid-year.
Volume in these markets is strong. The April 30 market trades $22,810/day. A $1,979 move shifts prices 5 points, indicating a moderately thick order book that larger traders can work with.
If US-Iran negotiations collapse, or if Iran doubles down on enrichment, these odds could reverse quickly. A confirmed agreement would solidify current pricing. Buying YES at 41.9¢ offers a 3.03x return if resolved by April 30, which requires faith in rapid diplomatic progress.
Watch for statements from Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization or new IAEA reports. Either would be direct catalysts for price movement in these markets.
