Iran’s parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf dismissed Trump’s claims of productive talks as lies and threatened to fully close the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket contract for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 30.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.

Market reaction

The market is trading $267,520 in USDC daily. Odds spiked as high as 24% after a 4-point jump but have since pulled back. It takes $16,881 to move the odds by 5 points, which points to a reasonably thick order book. Ghalibaf’s Hormuz threat could push odds lower if traders read it as a sign of further escalation. Related contracts on Iranian regime fall and US-Iran ceasefire may also move in response.

Why it matters

Ghalibaf’s statement came from a tier-3 source, which tends to add noise rather than clarity. But a direct threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil transit, is hard to dismiss as posturing alone. The market’s modest uptick over the past week, despite this kind of rhetoric, suggests some traders still see a nonzero path to a deal before the April 22 deadline.

What to watch

A YES share at 30.5¢ pays $1 if a deal materializes by April 22, a potential 6.67x return. That bet requires confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough within six days. Key catalysts: statements or actions from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, additional threats from Iranian officials, or unexpected conciliatory moves from the US. Any of these could shift odds sharply in either direction.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.