Iran’s 10-point response to US peace plan shows skepticism in markets

Iran has issued a 10-point response to the US peace plan, emphasizing security guarantees, ending regional conflicts, and lifting sanctions. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Iran’s response, labeled “one-sided and unfair,” shows diplomatic engagement but hasn’t convinced traders. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 8%, and the April 30 market is at 18% YES, down from 24%. The largest shift is between April 30 and May 31, with a 19-point increase, suggesting traders expect developments during this period.

Market depth shows fragility. Daily USDC traded on the April 7 market is $22,948. The cost to move the price 5 points ranges from $12,367 for April 7 to $40,022 for April 15, indicating varying conviction levels.

Iran’s response hints at resolution, but skepticism remains. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire offers a 100x return, but traders need to believe in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough. More concrete actions like intermediary engagement or a formal meeting date would signal a genuine shift.

Watch for statements from Trump, Rubio, and Hegseth or moves by intermediaries Oman and Qatar. Changes in rhetoric or new diplomatic activities could shift odds.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES

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