A Mossad agent was killed abroad during Operation Roaring Lion, according to Mossad Director David Barnea. “The operations led by M. combined creativity, cunning, and technology,” Barnea stated at a Remembrance Day ceremony. The market on countries conducting military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 1.9% YES for UK involvement.
The operation is a joint U.S.-Israel campaign striking Iranian nuclear sites and leadership targets. Odds for UK military action by April 30 are flat at 1.9% YES, unchanged from last week. The market is thin, with $32 actual USDC traded daily, making it susceptible to swings from small trades.
The agent’s death points to the operation’s intensity, which could draw in other countries. But without new action from allies, markets aren’t moving. A YES share at 2¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 50x return, but would need a major geopolitical shift within ten days.
Traders should watch for announcements from Saudi Arabia’s MBS or the UK’s Keir Starmer. Confirmed strikes by either country would move these markets sharply.
