Prediction market odds put Anthropic's chances of topping Bitcoin's market cap before December 31 as high as 79%, as its IPO approaches
An AI company that has never traded publicly is now being measured against the largest crypto asset on the planet. On Polymarket, traders put the odds that Anthropic’s valuation will exceed Bitcoin’s market cap before year-end at as high as 79%.
The bet, by the numbers
The Polymarket contract asks whether Anthropic’s valuation will top Bitcoin’s market capitalization at least once before December 31, 2026. Recent odds have ranged between 74% and 79%.
The market has drawn around $209,000 in betting volume.
The trigger for all this attention is paperwork. Anthropic filed its S-1 registration with the SEC on October 26, 2026, setting up a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT.
Market expectations for the debut valuation sit between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. For comparison, Anthropic’s most recent private valuation was $965 billion, set after a $65 billion Series H round in May 2026.
Where Bitcoin stands
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has been reported between $1.55 trillion and $1.61 trillion. That corresponds to a BTC price moving roughly between $77,000 and $80,000.
Put those ranges side by side and the logic of the bet becomes clear. The bottom of Anthropic’s expected IPO range, $1.5 trillion, sits just under Bitcoin’s current market cap. The top of that range, $2 trillion, clears it comfortably.
The contract only needs Anthropic to win the comparison once, which tilts the odds in its favor.
The growth story behind the valuation
Anthropic’s financials help explain why investors are comfortable with trillion-dollar figures. The company reported $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026.
That represents growth of over 1300% compared to the prior year.
Anthropic also posted its first operating profit in Q2 2026.
Not every estimate lands at the high end, though. NYU professor Aswath Damodaran, well known for his valuation work, has pegged Anthropic’s equity value at around $1.475 trillion.
That figure sits close to the low end of IPO expectations. It also falls slightly below Bitcoin’s current market cap range, which is a useful reminder that the 79% odds are not a sure thing.
What this means for investors and traders
For Polymarket traders, the key variables are simple to track. Watch where Anthropic’s IPO is finally priced, how the stock trades in its first days on Nasdaq, and where BTC sits relative to the $77,000 to $80,000 band it has occupied.
The gap between Damodaran’s roughly $1.475 trillion estimate and the $2 trillion top end shows how wide the range of reasonable outcomes still is. A pricing near the conservative end would leave Anthropic brushing up against Bitcoin rather than leaping past it.
There is also the question of timing. The contract runs through December 31, 2026, which leaves a short window for a listing to happen and for the valuation to be tested in public markets. Any delay in the IPO process would shrink that window further.
