The UN Security Council will convene following Ukraine’s request to address Russian shelling and civilian casualties. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 are at 9.5% YES, down from 10% a week ago.
Traders remain skeptical of any diplomatic progress from the upcoming UN meeting. The April 30 ceasefire market sits at 1.7% YES, with only 14 days left. That price reflects the expectation that Russia’s veto power will block any meaningful UN intervention.
The June 30 ceasefire market has also barely moved despite the escalation in violence and international attention. Daily trading volume is $1,975, and it takes $10,278 to move the price by 5 points, a thin market where a few large trades could shift the odds noticeably.
The low odds match the general lack of optimism for a ceasefire while Russian attacks continue. The Kyiv Post, a tier-3 source, characterizes the meeting as diplomatic signaling rather than a path to actionable outcomes. A YES share for a June 30 ceasefire, priced at 9.5¢, pays $1 if resolved, a 10.5x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect a real diplomatic shift within 75 days.
Watch for statements from the Security Council meeting on April 20. Any unexpected Russian concessions or diplomatic breakthroughs could move these markets.
