The United States has reportedly expanded its military operations near Tehran, targeting areas closer to the Iranian capital, according to social media reports. This represents a significant escalation in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, previously concentrated around the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes near Karaj suggest a potential shift in strategy, possibly aimed at targeting Iran’s deep inland infrastructure, including energy and command-and-control systems. The development marks a notable deviation from the pattern of engagements that have largely been limited to coastal regions and border areas.

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests the expansion of U.S. strikes near Tehran could indicate a decrease in the perceived stability of the Iranian regime, with the probability of its survival dropping slightly to 97.9% from 99% in recent days.
• The likelihood of Iran closing its airspace by June 12 appears to have increased, with market odds rising to 38.5% from 28%, reflecting concerns over heightened defensive measures.
• The possibility of the U.S. declaring war on Iran seems to have edged up, with current market pricing at a 5.5% probability, slightly down from earlier levels but still indicating increased tension.

What to Watch

Developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict could further affect market expectations regarding regime stability and airspace closures. Key indicators will include official statements from the U.S. and Iran, any new military actions, and potential diplomatic interventions. Watch for any Iranian NOTAMs or reports on airspace closure, as well as updates from Iranian state media regarding regime stability. The situation remains fluid, with potential for further escalation or diplomatic resolution.

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