Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, raising military confrontation risks

Iran’s IRGC Navy announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of fewer than 10 ships transiting by April 19 is at 0.4% YES, while the UK warship transit market dropped from 12% to 8.5% YES.

The IRGC’s closure has moved related markets. The UK sending warships through Hormuz by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. Traders are pricing in higher risk of military confrontation, making naval passage through the strait less likely.

On the ship transit market, odds for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13–19 sit at 0.4% YES. With only one day left, traders are betting on near-complete cessation of unauthorized movement. The market has only $14 in USDC traded today, so thin liquidity means high volatility on minimal capital.

The strait closure is Iran’s attempt to pressure the U.S. and its allies into lifting the naval blockade. The warships through Hormuz market reflects this: traders doubt any country will send warships into an active confrontation zone. A YES share at 8¢ pays $1 if a UK warship transits, a 12.5x return, but the price reflects how unlikely traders consider that outcome.

Watch for IRGC naval activity and statements from U.S. Central Command or diplomatic channels. Any change in military posture or diplomatic contact could move these markets quickly.

Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.