Iran has released footage documenting a series of missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait. The strikes are part of the ongoing 2026 Iran–U.S. conflict, which has seen escalating military exchanges between the two nations. These actions follow U.S. airstrikes on Iranian soil that resulted in casualties and infrastructure damage. The latest attacks highlight a significant escalation, as Iran directly targets U.S. bases in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, expanding the geographical scope of the conflict beyond previous focal points like the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Takeaways

• The release of the footage and the attacks on U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait appear consistent with a significant escalation in military activity in the Gulf region.
• The probability of Iran conducting further military actions against Gulf states by July 13 is currently priced at 36%, indicating increased expectations of continued conflict.
• The impact of these developments appears to have led to a notable rise in the odds of military action on specific dates, with July 12 witnessing a substantial spike in YES pricing to 80%.

What to Watch

Watch for any further retaliatory actions from both Iran and the U.S. that could affect the odds of military engagement in the Gulf region. Statements from key regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could significantly influence market perceptions. Additionally, any diplomatic interventions or mediations, particularly from neutral parties like Qatar or Oman, may alter the trajectory of this evolving conflict. The situation remains fluid, suggesting that further developments could either escalate tensions or open pathways for de-escalation.

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