Iran is tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz even as a ceasefire is in place. The odds of Donald Trump announcing the US blockade lift by May 31 sit at 81.5% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
The May 31 market dropped 12 points in a single day. The April 19 market fell harder, from 28% to 8% YES. Traders are growing more skeptical about a quick resolution to the blockade.
The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait between April 13-19 is at 0.4% YES, barely moving even as Iran turns ships back. Most traders still expect some transit activity to continue, which conflicts with the falling odds on a blockade lift.
Daily USDC trade volumes: $9,914 for the May 31 market and $19,688 for the April 19 market. The May 31 market needs $1,419 to move 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The April 19 market is thicker at $3,849 to move 5 points, with higher trader interest despite its near-term expiry.
The ceasefire has not translated into blockade relief, and the market now prices in a prolonged standoff. Buying YES at 81.5¢ offers a 1.28x return if Trump lifts the blockade by May 31. That bet requires a belief in a diplomatic breakthrough that the market is currently pricing as less likely than it was 24 hours ago.
Watch for statements from Trump or CENTCOM, and Iran’s next moves on ship transit. A shift in diplomatic language or military posture could swing these odds fast.
