Iran plans to join a second round of talks with the US in Pakistan after earlier stalemate. The US-Iran ceasefire end by April 21 market is at 9% YES, up from 6% yesterday.
The ceasefire end by April 21 market spiked to 9% earlier today. The ceasefire broken announcement market sits at 17.5% YES, a similar shift. Odds for a permanent peace deal by April 22 have ticked up to 16.5% YES.
The ceasefire end market has $7,248 in actual USDC traded, with $880 in order book depth to move the price 5 points. The largest move was a 5-point spike at 11:03 AM, consistent with reactive trading to the news of continued talks. The peace deal market has $610,678 in actual USDC traded, with $9,366 in order book depth.
Iran’s willingness to return to talks signals diplomatic momentum, but Trump’s threats and the short timeline to April 21 create real uncertainty. A YES share for ceasefire end by April 21 at 9¢ pays $1 if Trump announces the ceasefire’s end, a 6.25x return. The bet requires no diplomatic breakthrough before the deadline.
Watch for statements from the JD Vance delegation in Islamabad and any announcements from Pakistani mediators. Trump’s rhetoric and shifts in the US naval blockade status will directly affect these markets.
