Israel’s Ministry of Education confirmed schools will fully reopen Sunday following a ceasefire with Lebanon and Iran. The Netanyahu tenure market for June 30 is at 5.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago.
The reopening signals de-escalation, with direct implications for Netanyahu’s tenure markets and Trump’s potential military announcement. The April 30 market sits at 0.6% YES. With June 30 at 5.5%, traders are pricing in a slightly lower chance of Netanyahu leaving by mid-year compared to yesterday.
Volume hit $1,011 in actual trading over the past 24 hours across both markets, with higher liquidity in the April market at $68,036 face value. The term structure shows skepticism about immediate political upheaval, with a 5-point spread between April 30 and June 30.
The ceasefire with Iran could raise the probability of Trump announcing an end to military operations. The market for Trump declaring an end by March 1 is currently unpriced, which points to uncertainty about long-term military commitments even with the ceasefire in place.
At 5.5¢, a YES on Netanyahu leaving by June 30 pays $1, a 18x return if he steps down. But the ceasefire’s effect on political stability points toward a calmer environment. Traders betting on immediate instability may be overestimating near-term risks.
Watch for official statements from US Central Command and possible Knesset moves. Announcements in the next week could shift market odds significantly.
