Israel’s doubts on US-Iran deal lower ceasefire odds
US-Iran Ceasefire
Israel’s skepticism about a US-Iran agreement has pressured diplomatic efforts, affecting ceasefire odds. The chance of a ceasefire by April 7 is at 8.5% YES, slightly up from 8% yesterday but down from 18% a week ago.
Israel’s stance has fueled bearish sentiment. The April 15 market is at 20.5% YES, up from 20% yesterday but down from 32% a week ago. The April 30 market dropped to 36.5% from 40% yesterday, indicating concerns over stalled talks.
The May 31 ceasefire odds are at 55.5% YES, down from 56% yesterday. Traders expect a catalyst between April 30 and May 31, with a 19-point odds jump, suggesting progress might come later.
USDC volume is strong, with the April 15 market at $607,855. The April 7 market’s order book depth shows it would take over $20,000 to shift the price by 5 percentage points, indicating stability unless major news breaks.
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Israel’s position complicates US diplomatic efforts. An April 7 ceasefire YES share at 8.5¢ offers a 12x return but assumes rapid de-escalation, unlikely without diplomatic breakthroughs.
Watch for statements from US figures like Trump or Rubio and potential intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar for any odds shift.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 20.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 75.5% YES