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Kalshi traders assign 66% chance of Trump impeachment before end of term
The regulated prediction market sees two-in-three odds of House impeachment, but removal from office sits at a far more skeptical 27%.
Prediction market traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 66.6% probability that President Donald Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives before January 1, 2028. The contract has drawn more than $2.76 million in total trading volume, making it one of the platform’s most actively traded political markets.
That number has more than doubled since the market launched in November 2025, when traders pegged the odds at roughly 30%.
The gap between impeachment and removal
Impeachment, in constitutional terms, is essentially an indictment. The House votes to bring charges. Removal requires a conviction by the Senate, which demands a two-thirds supermajority.
Kalshi runs a separate contract on whether Trump will actually be removed from office, whether through Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment. That market is trading at approximately 27%.
For context, Trump was impeached twice during his first term, in 2019 and 2021. Both times, the Senate acquitted him.
Why the odds surged
The probability spiked above 70% in March 2026, coinciding with critical political developments around the 2026 midterm elections and escalating geopolitical tensions.
One of the biggest drivers: Kalshi’s own midterm markets, where Democrats are currently priced at a 71% chance of retaking the House. A Democratic majority in the House is effectively a prerequisite for impeachment proceedings, since the majority party controls which votes reach the floor.
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If Democrats flip the House in November 2026, they would control the chamber from January 2027 onward, giving them roughly a year before Trump’s term ends to pursue impeachment.
Polymarket, another prediction market platform, has shown comparable figures. Snapshots from June 2026 put the probability of House impeachment before the end of Trump’s term at 69%, closely tracking Kalshi’s pricing.
What prediction markets actually measure
A 66.6% probability means that if you want to buy a contract that pays out $1 on impeachment, you’re paying about 67 cents. Someone on the other side is willing to sell you that contract, betting that impeachment won’t happen, for the remaining 33 cents of potential profit.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange in the US. The platform fought a high-profile legal battle with the CFTC over its right to list event contracts on elections and political outcomes, ultimately prevailing in court.
The $2.76 million in volume is significant for a political event contract but modest compared to major financial markets.
What traders should watch
The November 2026 midterm results will be the single biggest catalyst for this market. If Republicans hold the House, impeachment odds would likely collapse toward single digits. If Democrats win a comfortable majority, expect the contract to push toward 80% or higher.
The gap between impeachment and removal odds suggests traders see the most likely scenario as political spectacle without a change in presidential power. A 66% chance of impeachment paired with a 27% chance of removal reflects that dynamic.
The jump from 30% to 70% happened over roughly four months, demonstrating how rapidly these odds can move in response to political developments.