The NCSC's annual review pairs a stark AI threat forecast with fresh government funding for national cyber defenses
Britain’s top cyber defense agency has put a date on a scenario security teams have been dreading. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) says it is “highly likely” that AI-powered malware will feature in a ransomware attack on the UK’s critical national infrastructure between now and 2028.
The forecast arrived on November 3, 2026, alongside the NCSC’s annual review, titled “State of the Cyber Nation.” The agency also released a separate assessment examining how AI could reshape the cyber threat landscape over the next two years.
What the NCSC actually said
Dr. Richard Horne, CEO of the NCSC, indicated that AI is not producing entirely new methods of attack. Instead, it is amplifying familiar weaknesses, with social engineering and ransomware at the top of the list.
The assessment connects this shift to decades of underinvestment in cybersecurity technology. In other words, AI is exploiting gaps that were already there, not carving out fresh ones.
The NCSC did not spell out what form the AI-driven malware might take. It did, however, flag a potential increase in both the scale and efficiency of attacks carried out by state-backed groups and criminal gangs alike.
China named as the top threat
The reports single out hostile states, with China identified as the most significant threat.
According to the NCSC, there is a “high likelihood” that China will use AI against UK critical national infrastructure. The agency also expects hostile actors, China in particular, to speed up their adoption of AI for cyber operations.
The numbers behind the warning
In the year to August 31, 2026, the NCSC received 1,831 cyberattack reports. It supported 337 incidents, and 80 of those were classed as nationally significant.
The economic toll is also substantial. Malicious cyber activity is estimated to cost UK organizations £14.7 billion per year.
The government’s response: new money and a new center
The warnings landed alongside a set of UK government funding announcements aimed at shoring up national defenses.
The package includes £60 million for a Cyber Shield initiative. A further £70 million is earmarked for a National Exposure and Real-Time Vulnerability Centre.
The government also plans to set up a new AI Cyber Security Centre of Excellence in Manchester.
