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More than 20 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, the highest single-day count since early March. The April 13-19 market on whether fewer than 10 ships would transit the strait now sits at 0% YES, as the threshold was decisively exceeded.
Market reaction
With only one day left before resolution, the market has effectively resolved to NO. Volume stands at $14 in USDC traded, with just $12 needed to move the price by 5 percentage points, indicating an extremely thin market with almost no remaining liquidity.
Why it matters
The transit increase happened while U.S.-Iran tensions were elevated following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel and subsequent Iranian drone strikes. Each action has further strained the fragile ceasefire that was originally intended to ease the blockade. The vessel crossing data shows operational normalization in strait traffic even as the geopolitical situation remains unstable.
What to watch
The 0% YES odds mean betting on a late reversal is off the table given current data. Traders should monitor announcements from CENTCOM or the Iranian Foreign Ministry, as their statements could move related markets if tensions escalate or diplomatic efforts produce unexpected results.
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