President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by firing on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to attack Iranian infrastructure unless Tehran accepts US terms. The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by April 19 sit at 8%, down from 41% yesterday.
The accusation drove a sharp drop in confidence on near-term blockade resolution. The May 31 market is at 82% YES, down from 90% 24 hours ago, meaning traders still expect resolution but not soon. The April 19 market plunged 33 points.
The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 and April 19 sits at 0.4% YES. Traders are largely dismissing the chance that transit numbers fall that low even with the confrontation. Only $14 in USDC has traded on this contract.
Total volume across blockade announcement markets is $29,602 in USDC, with enough liquidity to absorb large orders without dramatic price swings. The biggest single move was a 6-point drop in the April 19 market, consistent with reactionary trading after Trump’s rhetoric.
At 8¢, a YES share for an April 19 announcement pays $1 if it happens, a 12.5x return. Given Trump’s escalatory language, near-term resolution looks unlikely. Watch for official Pentagon statements or Trump posts that might signal a strategy shift. Any surprise diplomatic trips could also move the odds.
