Trump claims US, not Iran, keeping Strait of Hormuz closed

Trump’s statement that the US is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, not Iran, has moved prediction markets sharply. The likelihood of Trump announcing the US blockade’s end by May 31 sits at 64.5% YES, down from 77% yesterday.

Market reaction

The May 31 market dropped 12.5 points over the past day as traders repriced toward a prolonged blockade. With 38 days until resolution, the odds suggest skepticism about a quick diplomatic breakthrough. The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April remains at 1% YES. Traders are unconvinced prices will reach that level within the remaining days of April. Volume there is thin: only $487 in actual USDC traded.

Why it matters

Trump’s rhetoric implies continued US enforcement of the blockade rather than any move toward lifting it. This is a shift from earlier framing that placed responsibility on Iran. The statement reframes the blockade as a deliberate US policy choice, which changes the diplomatic calculus for any resolution.

What to watch

The blockade market’s daily actual USDC volume is $32,536, with $7,404 needed to move it 5 points, suggesting some resilience against small trades. The largest single move in the past 24 hours was a 3-point drop at 8:37 PM, likely reactive trading to Trump’s statement. At 35.5¢, a NO share pays out if the blockade remains through May 31, a bet on continued tension.

Watch for any conciliatory language from Trump, shifts in Iran’s posture, Pentagon updates, or signs of resumed US-Iran talks or military de-escalation from either side.

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