Trump plans anti-mine operations in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling sustained military engagement. The market for “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st” is bearish, with odds expected to decrease by 15%.
The US-Iran ceasefire market has moved sharply. Odds for a ceasefire announcement by April 21 sit at 12%, down from 62% a week ago. The planned mine-clearing operations point to ongoing conflict rather than de-escalation, pushing the likelihood of a ceasefire announcement lower.
The mine-clearing market shows no significant movement, with zero trading volume in the last 24 hours. The market’s face value is stagnant, and traders are not betting on an end to military operations soon. The ceasefire market has $2,291 in USDC traded, with the largest price move a 2-point drop.
The anti-mine operations point to a continued military approach rather than a diplomatic one. A YES share in the ceasefire market at 12¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced, a long shot for anyone betting on a diplomatic breakthrough within five days.
Watch Trump’s Truth Social posts and Pentagon briefings for signs of shifting military strategy or potential diplomatic moves. Any unexpected turn toward negotiations could move these markets quickly.
