Trump’s comments on Iran suggest no imminent end to the Hormuz blockade. Odds of lifting the blockade by May 31 remain at 76.5% YES.
Trump has hinted at ongoing negotiations while rejecting Iranian leverage, and traders are skeptical of a quick resolution. The market for a lifting by April 19 sits at 10.5% YES, with a modest increase over the last two days. The April 17 market is effectively flat at 8% YES with just one day remaining. The spread between April 19 and May 31 suggests traders don’t see a catalyst until late May.
USDC volume is $33,928 over the last 24 hours, with notable liquidity in the near-term sub-markets. The April 19 position needs only $227 to move 5 points, making it vulnerable to large orders. The largest move was a 6-point drop yesterday evening.
Trump’s statements are noise without a concrete shift in naval or diplomatic posture. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 remain low at 24.5% YES. At 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, but that requires believing in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough within six days.
Watch Trump’s late-day communications, Pentagon briefings, or any unexpected Iranian moves. A Trump end-of-day announcement could either surprise traders or confirm the status quo.
