U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro may reopen the Fed probe into Jerome Powell, which could affect Kevin Warsh’s confirmation odds. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 is at 82% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
The possibility of reopening the investigation has introduced uncertainty into the confirmation process. The May 1 market sits at 2.4% YES, showing doubt about a swift resolution. The May 15 market at 82% jumped sharply, with traders pricing in confirmation within that window. The June 30 market hovers at 97% YES, pricing in near-certainty of eventual confirmation even if there are delays.
Confirmation markets saw $19,708 in trading volume over the past 24 hours. The May 15 contract’s largest move, a 20-point spike, came after news of the initial investigation’s closure. With only $1,590 required to move the price 5 points, the market is thin enough that large orders can cause sharp swings.
The prospect of a reopened probe complicates the timeline. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 at 82¢ pays $1, a 1.22x return. That bet requires confidence the probe won’t push proceedings past mid-May, particularly given the political nature of the investigation.
Watch for statements from Senate Banking Committee members and any DOJ updates, as these could shift sentiment quickly. President Trump’s comments on the probe also matter; any signal of support for reopening could move odds fast.
