A River report shows approximately 50 million Americans now own Bitcoin, surpassing the 37 million who own gold. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin above $60,000 by April 19 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
Americans hold 40% of global Bitcoin supply, even as Bitcoin has dropped 20% year-to-date. The Bitcoin above $60,000 by April 19 market is at 100% YES, meaning traders see no real risk of a fall below that level.
Longer-term price targets tell a different story. The Bitcoin reaching $100,000 market is at 38% YES, and the Bitcoin reaching $150,000 market is at 11% YES. High domestic ownership hasn’t translated into confidence that prices will recover to prior highs.
Why it matters
The gap between ownership growth and price expectations is striking. Fifty million holders represent real demand, but the 38% odds on $100K by end of 2026 suggest traders don’t see a clear path from current prices. Trading volume in the Bitcoin price targets market is $2,274 in USDC over the past 24 hours. Order book depth is $8,640 to move 5 points, which means a single large trade could still shift prices meaningfully.
What to watch
At 38¢, a YES share on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026 pays $1 if it hits, a 2.63x return. To justify that bet, traders need to identify a specific catalyst. Federal Reserve policy shifts are the most obvious candidate. Jerome Powell’s upcoming statements and BlackRock’s Bitcoin-related moves (ETF flows, new products) are the two things most likely to move these contracts.
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