Anthropic is now seen as the frontrunner in the race to go public before OpenAI, as reflected in Polymarket’s prediction markets. The odds of Anthropic completing an IPO before OpenAI have surged to 95%, according to recent updates. Both AI companies, known for their advanced AI models, filed confidential IPO paperwork in June 2026. Reports suggest that Anthropic is actively preparing for an IPO by Q4 2026, while OpenAI’s timeline remains uncertain and potentially delayed to 2027. The latest shift in market sentiment indicates confidence in Anthropic’s readiness to enter the public market ahead of its competitor.
Key Takeaways
- Anthropic’s odds of IPO before OpenAI have reached 95% on Polymarket, suggesting market confidence in its IPO timeline.
- OpenAI’s IPO timing remains undecided, with potential delays into 2027, contrasting with Anthropic’s reported preparations for a late-2026 listing.
- Market participants appear to view Anthropic as the leading candidate to achieve a public listing first, consistent with the shifting odds.
What to Watch
Observers will be closely monitoring any official announcements from Anthropic regarding its IPO plans, particularly any updates to its expected timeline or valuation. OpenAI’s strategic decisions and public communications will also be critical, as any clarification on its IPO timing could impact market expectations. Additionally, any developments in regulatory approvals or market conditions affecting AI companies could further influence the perceived likelihood of either company going public first.
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