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Bitcoin’s $80K consolidation could end within days as macro events approach, ARP Digital says
ARP Digital partner Yusuf Fakhro expects Bitcoin's tightening trading range to break as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve decision, major technology earnings and US midterm elections.
Bitcoin’s prolonged consolidation around $80,000 could end within days as several major economic and political events approach, according to Yusuf Fakhro, partner at Bahrain based digital capital infrastructure platform ARP Digital.
In commentary shared with Crypto Briefing, Fakhro said Bitcoin was trading near $79,800 after another week of declining prices and subdued trading activity, with broader market sentiment likely to determine its next move.
The analyst pointed to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, earnings from major technology companies and the US midterm elections as potential catalysts for renewed volatility.
“Volatility has compressed to levels that rarely last, and one of those events is likely to break the range,” Fakhro said.
Bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 last week as stronger than expected inflation data and a selloff in semiconductor stocks weighed on broader financial markets.
Fakhro said Bitcoin’s performance has increasingly mirrored technology stocks, with its returns over the past two weeks tracking the Nasdaq almost exactly.
He cautioned that Bitcoin’s relatively smaller losses during the latest equity selloff should not be interpreted as evidence that the cryptocurrency is becoming independent of traditional risk assets.
Bitcoin volatility compresses as traders await Fed decision
The outlook comes as Bitcoin trades within a narrow range following several weeks of consolidation.
According to K33 research, Bitcoin’s 28 day realized volatility recently fell to approximately 1.2%, approaching its lowest level of 2026.
The research firm also reported subdued trading volumes and growing correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions remain an important driver of cryptocurrency prices.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next policy decision on October 28, while the US midterm elections are set for November 3.
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Fakhro said these developments, alongside corporate earnings, could determine whether Bitcoin breaks above its recent trading range or extends its decline.
The analyst noted that leverage remains subdued and trading volumes are relatively thin, suggesting that speculative positioning has not reached levels typically associated with overheated markets.
He also observed that long term holders have shown limited willingness to sell at current prices, a pattern he believes is more consistent with market bottoming phases than major tops.
However, he acknowledged that a decisive break below the current range would warrant greater caution in the near term.
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF inflows support institutional demand
Despite the recent weakness, Fakhro said institutional demand for Bitcoin has remained resilient, particularly through US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds.
He highlighted BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which recorded its largest daily inflow in more than a year last week.
According to SoSoValue data, IBIT attracted approximately $665 million in net inflows on October 19, its largest daily dollar inflow since October 2025.
The fund accounted for much of the institutional buying that day, helping offset withdrawals from other Bitcoin investment products.
Fakhro said BlackRock has frequently been the primary source of positive flows during recent trading sessions, suggesting that institutional interest has weakened but not disappeared.
The analyst believes the combination of subdued leverage, limited selling pressure and continued ETF demand provides support for Bitcoin despite its recent decline.
ARP Digital turned bullish when Bitcoin was consolidating in the mid $60,000 range, according to Fakhro, and the firm has maintained that outlook through the latest pullback.
He described the current weakness as consolidation driven by broader financial markets rather than a fundamental breakdown in Bitcoin’s market structure.
Fakhro said a decline that holds in the upper $70,000 range could present an accumulation opportunity, while a sustained move below that area would require reassessing the near term outlook.
For now, the analyst expects Bitcoin’s next major move to depend on how investors respond to the Federal Reserve, technology earnings and the upcoming US elections.