Bitcoin ETFs received $996 million in weekly net inflows, the highest since mid-January. The Polymarket contract for a Bitcoin all-time high by December 31 is at 17.5% YES, up from 14% a week ago.
The ETF inflow surge coincides with a temporary de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict after Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Traders have shifted toward risk assets, including Bitcoin. The December 31 market moved up 3.5 points over the past week on that shift.
The June 30 market remains flat at 3.1% YES, with little change from last week. The September 30 market sits at 7.5% YES, down from 12% twenty-four hours ago. The biggest jump between any two adjacent contracts is between September 30 and December 31, which suggests traders expect major catalysts in Q4.
The market trades $3,642 in USDC daily. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 10:01 PM. Order book depth is $2,558 to move 5 points, indicating moderate resistance against sudden price swings. ETF inflows point to growing institutional interest, but the geopolitical situation is keeping traders cautious on shorter-dated contracts.
At 18¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits a new all-time high by December 31, a 5.56x return. For this bet to pay off, traders would need to see sustained ETF inflows or positive regulatory developments. The near-term contracts price in very little probability, so the market is betting that if a new high happens, it happens late in the year.
Watch for any breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, particularly around oil shipping routes, and Federal Reserve communications on rate cuts. Both could move Bitcoin and these contracts sharply.
