Bitcoin falls below $82K as hotter US inflation fuels Fed rate hike bets

Bitcoin dropped below $82,000 on Wednesday morning, October 14, falling as low as $81,500 after hotter than expected US inflation data raised expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, exceeding economists’ expectations of 3.6% and accelerating from 3.4% in August. Monthly inflation increased 0.6%, matching forecasts.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations of 0.2%. Annual core inflation reached 2.6%, compared with forecasts of 2.5%.

The report prompted traders to increase their bets on further monetary tightening. According to the CME FedWatch probabilities provided, markets priced in a 41.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the October meeting, up from around 22% on Tuesday. The probability of rates remaining unchanged stood at 58.5%.

For December, traders assigned a 36% probability to rates reaching 4.25% to 4.5% and a 56% probability to a range of 4% to 4.25%. Combined, those outcomes suggest a roughly 92% probability of at least one additional rate hike by year end, assuming no intervening rate cuts.

The selloff triggered more than $208 million in crypto long liquidations over four hours and more than $250 million over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data.

The broader crypto market fell nearly 2%, bringing its total capitalization close to $2.75 trillion. Ethereum slipped below $2,450, while XRP dropped under $1.33. Both declined more than 2%. Solana also lost over 2%, trading below $105, as most major tokens moved into negative territory.

Traditional markets came under pressure as well. The S&P 500 declined around 1%, while the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, reflecting broader investor concerns that persistent inflation could force the Fed to maintain tighter monetary policy.