Bitcoin’s probability of reaching $100,000 by December 31 has climbed to 36.5%, up from 31% yesterday, as traders react to de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and a short squeeze pushes capital out of oil and into crypto.
The Bitcoin $100,000 market moved sharply as risk-on sentiment returned following the Strait of Hormuz news. Traders are rotating capital from oil into crypto. The $150,000 target remains flat at 9.0%.
The order book structure tells two different stories. Moving the $100,000 odds by 5 percentage points requires $8,405, a relatively thick book that suggests institutional participation. The $150,000 market is much thinner: only $2,029 is needed for the same move, making it vulnerable to large single orders.
Actual volume is more modest than the odds shift suggests. $4,214 in real USDC moved the $100,000 market. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike at 11:31 PM, taking the market from 34% to 36%.
At 36¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000 by year’s end, a 2.74x return. That bet requires believing that geopolitical tensions continue cooling and that capital keeps flowing into Bitcoin rather than back into oil and other traditional safe havens.
Watch for institutional announcements from BlackRock and MicroStrategy, and any reversal in the Strait of Hormuz situation. Either could drive the next major move in these contracts.
