Global factory surveys for July 2026 show weaker new orders and higher input costs across multiple regions.

What the numbers actually say

Turkey’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.1 in June from 49.8 in May, crossing below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

US manufacturing PMI hit 54% in May 2026, a four-year high. Even while that figure was being celebrated, some 42% of US manufacturer survey comments in May referenced the Iran conflict directly, flagging oil price volatility and supply continuity as live concerns.

July data confirms that weaker demand and elevated costs have persisted through the summer, and the breakdown of a mid-July ceasefire has removed the most obvious off-ramp from the situation.

The war’s economic footprint

The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites.

The Iran war has produced the largest global oil supply disruption on record. Global commodity prices have surged broadly as Middle East instability feeds through to markets that price in geopolitical risk.

Turkey’s PMI reading of 47.1 reflects the squeeze from both sides: disrupted inputs from the east, weakening orders from the west.

What this means for markets and investors

The pattern emerging from July data describes a stagflationary dynamic: weaker demand and higher costs occurring simultaneously, where slowing growth and rising prices make the standard policy toolkit less effective.

The truce breakdown in mid-July is the most important near-term variable. A genuine ceasefire would begin unwinding the oil supply premium almost immediately. The absence of one keeps the pressure on.