Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia to address Iranian missile attacks

Gulf leaders are gathering in Saudi Arabia to coordinate a response to Iranian missile attacks. The Polymarket odds of Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by June 30 sit at 15.5% YES.

Market reaction

The Jeddah meeting is the first in-person GCC summit since the conflict began. The April 30 market is effectively dead at 0.2% YES. The June 30 market draws more activity. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, where odds leap 11 points, which means traders expect a catalyst in that window.

Why it matters

Trading volume shows a gap between face value and actual USDC, with $36,635 in real dollars spent. The June 30 market moves $5,739/day in real USDC, a moderate level of liquidity. Order book depth shows it takes $2,379 to move the price 5 percentage points, which points to some institutional interest but also vulnerability to large orders.

What to watch

The GCC summit could apply direct pressure on Iran’s regime, but the largest move so far has been a 1-point spike, so traders remain cautious. At 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by June 30, a 6.5x return. For this bet to pay off, you’d need to believe GCC actions will destabilize Iran within weeks.

Watch for post-summit statements and any military actions reported by Reuters. Either could move the market sharply in the coming days.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.