Hassan Rahimpour Azghadi, a prominent Iranian figure, has called for strikes on U.S. leaders and the abandonment of treaties in response to ongoing sanctions and assassinations. The statement was made amid heightened tensions in the ongoing 2026 Iran–United States war, which began following U.S.–Israeli airstrikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This development marks a significant escalation in the conflict, as it indicates Iran’s potential move away from diplomatic efforts towards more direct retaliation. Market participants appear to interpret this as a deteriorating environment for any potential U.S.-Iran deal in 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Iran’s call for attacks and treaty withdrawals appears consistent with a shift towards direct retaliation against the U.S.
• This escalation is suggested to impact the likelihood of reaching a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026 negatively.
• Market pricing reflects a decrease in the probability of a deal, with odds of a U.S.-Iran deal including reconstruction funding currently at 26% YES.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any military developments between the U.S. and Iran, as these could further influence the probability of diplomatic resolutions. Key actors like U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif are central figures in any future negotiations. The situation remains fluid, and any announcements from these figures or their mediators could impact market perceptions and pricing regarding a 2026 U.S.-Iran deal.

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