Iran claims Strait of Hormuz open, traders skeptical without vessel movement

Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is open for all ships. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 73% YES, down from 60% yesterday.

Market reaction

Traders responded to Iran’s statement with skepticism. The April 30 market dropped 10 points. The May 31 market holds steady at 94.5% YES, which suggests traders expect normalization but on a longer timeline.

The warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 market sits at 15.5% YES, indicating traders see little chance the UK sends naval forces through without concrete de-escalation measures.

Why it matters

Volume at $32,234 in USDC traded across these markets in the last 24 hours. The April 30 market’s largest move was a 4-point drop, and it took just $354 to shift odds by 5 points. That’s thin liquidity and high volatility.

Iran’s statement is a signal, but traders aren’t treating it as a guarantee without confirmed vessel movements or diplomatic breakthroughs. At 50¢, a YES share on normal traffic by April 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a 2x return. With 14 days until resolution, buyers need to believe in quick diplomatic progress.

What to watch

Announcements from major oil importers like China and India, or an explicit statement from the US or UK confirming resumed passage. Either would be a strong signal moving these odds.

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