Mohsen Rezaei, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, has stated that former US President Donald Trump intends to launch further attacks on Iran, and asserted that Iran is fully prepared to respond. This statement comes amidst ongoing tensions in the 2026 Iran War, where the United States and Israel are pitted against Iran after previous peace negotiations stalled. Rezaei’s comments suggest a heightened level of readiness on Iran’s part, potentially involving missile and drone responses. The deadlock in negotiations over the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets and Iran’s nuclear program continues to contribute to the volatile situation.

Key Takeaways

• Rezaei’s statement appears to suggest an increase in tensions between the US and Iran, impacting the likelihood of a US-Iran deal being reached in 2026.
• Market pricing indicates a moderate decrease in the probability of a US-Iran deal, with current odds reflecting a decrease in YES outcomes for various deal components.
• The stalled negotiations over vital issues such as asset release and nuclear program terms are consistent with market behavior that anticipates ongoing hostilities.

What to Watch

Watch for statements from key figures such as Donald Trump and Iranian officials for indicators of further escalation or potential breakthroughs. Any military actions by either side could further influence market perceptions of a US-Iran deal being finalized. Developments in negotiations, especially regarding the frozen assets and nuclear terms, will be crucial in determining future market directions. As tensions remain high, any movement towards or away from a deal will likely reflect significant changes in geopolitical strategies and market expectations.

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